The effect of this consumption pattern on the manufacturing plan is difficult to anticipate due to the bullwhip effect as it progresses from retailer - to retailer warehouse - to distributor - to manufacturing facility.
What will change is the consumption pattern at the retail level. Even with the current inflated demand, the total consumption of toilet paper over the entire year will not change. It is not manufactured in excess quantity and there is a fast turnover from production to consumption. Essentially, toilet paper is a bulky item. It has a steady demand that is directly proportional to the population with no seasonal variations. Plan: Planning for toilet paper is a simple exercise. Let’s see how the current inflated demand of toilet paper will play out using the fundamentals of Supply Chain: Plan, Source, Make and Deliver. Like then and like now, such an unanticipated spike in demand puts significant stress on the supply chain. This was enough to send America into a frenzy of buying toilet paper and created an artificial demand that was neither anticipated nor planned for. But have you heard the latest? There’s an acute shortage of…of toilet paper!”. In December 1973, Johnny Carson mistakenly proclaimed on The Tonight Show, “You know, we’ve got all sorts of shortages these days.
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